Ageing Population to Increase Disease Prevalence
Many countries are facing the challenge of an aging population, and there will be an increased number of people aged 60 and over – a high-risk age range for lung cancer. Over half of the incident cases of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) are diagnosed in patients over the age of 65. Smoking is the main cause of lung cancer, ahead of radon gas, inhalation of chemical carcinogens and genetic factors. Although the number of smokers is falling in Asia-Pacific (APAC), the prevalence of NSCLC is increasing. This is because the disease is diagnosed more often in older people who had or have a smoking habit, and the number of older people, as shown above, is increasing.
Pipeline Entries to Drive NSCLC Market Growth
The NSCLC market in APAC is forecast to grow substantially, from $2.7 billion in 2015 to $4.9 billion in 2022, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.7%, following the introduction of a number of premium therapies, such as Yervoy, Keytruda, Zykadia, necitumumab, atezolizumab and Cyramza. Immune-checkpoint inhibitors, such as Opdivo and Keytruda, will drive growth, with the former recently gaining approval in Japan, Australia and South Korea and the latter currently undergoing Phase III trials in Australia, Japan and South Korea. These drugs are expected to capture a significant share of the second-line treatment market. The majority of new therapies will target the second-line treatment of NSCLC in both non-squamous and squamous patient subsets, leading to a crowded treatment algorithm for second-line patients. Atezolizumab, Cyramza and Zykadia fall under this category and are currently undergoing Phase III trials in APAC. Owing to strong clinical performances, immune checkpoint inhibitors will have a greater uptake than other second-line market entrants and will compete among themselves for market share. There will also be novel introductions to the first-line treatment of squamous-cell patients in the form of necitumumab and Yervoy (ipilimumab), which are expected to make a significant impact in the APAC market. As the squamous patient subset is very limited in terms of first-line treatment options, these therapies will be important not just for driving market growth, but also for improving treatment outlook.
New Therapies Increase Market Segmentation and Diversify Treatment
New targeted and immuno-therapies will drive market growth due to premium pricing and strong clinical performances, but they will also increase the degree of NSCLC market segmentation and the complexity of the treatment algorithm, owing to their enhanced efficacy in specific patient populations. Currently, treatment is primarily determined based on histology and, to a smaller extent, molecular characterizations, with non-squamous patients having greater access to therapy, and patients with Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) or Anaplastic Lymphoma receptor tyrosine Kinase (ALK) mutations having access to premium targeted therapies in the form of Tarceva, Iressa, Xalkori and Gilotrif. All the mentioned drugs have been approved in APAC except Gilotrif, which is undergoing Phase III trials in China and India. Cheaper generic versions of Tarceva, Iressa and Xalkori are available in India, thereby reducing the uptake of branded therapies due to cost constraints.
GBI Research’s Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Therapeutics in Asia-Pacific Markets to 2022 – Launch of Premium Targeted Therapies and Increasing Prevalence to Drive the Market report provides analysis of the non-small cell lung cancer treatment space across the Asia-Pacific countries of India, China, Australia, South Korea, and Japan. It includes annualized market data from 2015 and forecast to 2022, as well as detailed pipeline analysis.
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