GlobalData has revised downwards the forecast for growth in the global construction industry over the forecast period (2018-2022) to an annual average of 3.4% from 3.6% previously. The revision primarily reflects a weaker estimated outturn in 2018 in China and South Korea, which has pulled the forecast for growth in North-East Asia to 3.4%, as well as a flatter growth trend in the US. In real value terms (measured at constant 2017 prices and US$ exchange rates), global construction output is forecast to rise to US$12.9 trillion in 2022, up from US$10.9 trillion in 2017.
In the US, President Trump hopes to speed up growth in the US economy by cutting taxes, slashing regulation and increasing infrastructure spending; so far, however, much of Trump’s economic agenda has not made it through Congress. GlobalData remains bearish over the political reality of the expanded US$1.5 trillion infrastructure plan, and does not expect to see such an enormous investment. Nevertheless, the construction outlook for the US in 2018-2019 remains solid, and GlobalData expects to see ongoing investment in the sector over the forecast period.
The Asia-Pacific region will continue to account for the largest share of the global construction industry, given that it includes the large markets of China, Japan and India. The pace of growth will slow, however, given the projected slowdown in China’s construction industry as well as weakness in South Korea. China’s government is expected to try to curb excessive investment and avoid a disorderly debt crisis, and as such is likely to reduce its spending on major infrastructure projects.
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Published: Dec 2018
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